You know what matters when you're thinking about buying a home in Southern Oregon? Not what's happening in New York or LA or Texas. It's the local data. The current inventory numbers. The actual mortgage rates you'll pay right now versus what experts think is coming next year.

I just read an article tracking mortgage rate forecasts from nine leading research firms, and honestly, I was surprised. They all agree on one thing about where rates are heading. Every single one of them. And if they're right, the strategy for buying or selling here in Southern Oregon shifts pretty dramatically.

This is your weekly market update for Jackson and Josephine Counties. We'll walk through the latest inventory numbers, price changes, and pending sales. Then I'll break down what those nine expert predictions actually mean for you if you're thinking about moving to Southern Oregon or selling your home here before the end of the year.

Table of Contents

• Jackson County: Inventory Trends and Weekly Market Activity
• Josephine County: Combined Market Data with Jackson County
• What Nine Mortgage Rate Forecasters Predict for 2023-2025
• Why Buying Now Beats Waiting for Lower Rates
• Conclusion

Jackson County: Inventory Trends and Weekly Market Activity

As of August 16th, Jackson County had 1,079 single-family homes on the market when you combine it with Josephine County. That's down from 1,087 the week before and over 1,100 the weeks prior to that. So we're seeing inventory trend down, and the main reason is new listings have slowed quite a bit. Only 99 new listings hit the market last week.

Price changes dropped to 103 homes, which is a pretty significant shift. We've been seeing price changes in the 130s for weeks, and typically that would be about 12-13% of inventory. At 103 price changes, we're only looking at 9.5% of inventory. I don't know if that's just a one-week thing or what, but I'm thinking maybe a lot of the people who were waiting to reduce their price to try to get sold before the end of the year have already made their move. That probably happened over the last few weeks.

So I think we'll still see price changes, but probably not quite as much as we were seeing the prior four or five weeks.

Weekly Activity Breakdown

Pendings came in at 98 homes, which is about 9% of inventory. That's down a bit. We were at 99 two weeks ago, so not a huge deal, but I was kind of hoping to see that maintain above 100. Closings rebounded nicely to 80 last week after being at 67 the week prior. That was good to see.

Twenty-nine homes came back on the market. Forty-three were either expired, withdrawn, or canceled.

Nothing here is jumping out as really crazy or surprising. The market looks stable. Inventory is coming down like it does this time of year. The big story is those price reductions slowing down, which tells me sellers who needed to move have probably already adjusted. If you're living in Southern Oregon and watching the market, this is a pretty normal late-summer pattern.

What This Means for Buyers in Jackson County

Inventory is tightening. New listings are slowing. If you're buying a home in Southern Oregon right now, you're not dealing with the feeding frenzy of spring, but you're also not seeing a flood of new options every week. The homes that are priced right are moving. The ones that aren't have probably already dropped their price or are about to expire.

Competition is manageable right now. That's the key. Pendings at 9% of inventory means buyers are still out there, but you're not fighting off multiple offers on every decent listing. That changes fast when mortgage rates drop, which we'll get to in a minute.

Josephine County: Combined Market Data with Jackson County

Josephine County's data is tracked together with Jackson County, so that 1,079 total inventory number includes both. Same trends apply here. Inventory is coming down. New listings are slowing. Price changes dropped to 9.5% of inventory last week.

If you're moving to Grants Pass or anywhere in Josephine County, you're dealing with the same market dynamics as Jackson County. The combined data gives us a clearer picture of what's happening across Southern Oregon real estate as a whole, and right now it's a market where inventory is tightening heading into fall.

That's important because of what's coming next with mortgage rates. If rates drop like the experts are predicting, this inventory squeeze gets a lot tighter. More buyers jump in. Competition heats up. Prices get pushed back up. So the window we're in right now, between now and the end of the year, is probably the best opportunity buyers will see for a while.

What Nine Mortgage Rate Forecasters Predict for 2023-2025

Okay, so I read this article from Fortune by way of AOL, published August 13th. They tracked down mortgage rate forecasts from nine leading research firms. And look, predicting mortgage rates is hard. Recent history has shown these forecasters have struggled. I did a video on this maybe a year and a half ago, and they were way off. Way off.

But here's what caught my attention. Every single one of them agrees that mortgage rates are coming down. Nine for nine. Rates are coming down quickly. They're coming down this year. They're coming down all of next year. That's the prediction across the board.

Let me walk through what each firm said.

The Mortgage Bankers Association

They're projecting the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will average 5.9% in Q4 of 2023. That's October, November, December. If that's going to happen, we need to see some significant drops between now and then, because right now we're just over 7.25%. That's the highest we've seen in a long time.

For it to average 5.9% in Q4, we'd need to get down there first and then either maintain it or go even lower so it all balances out. They also think we'll see rates at 4.9% by Q4 of 2024. That's looking at things in a very positive light.

Morningstar

Morningstar is projecting the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be 6.25% in 2023. I'm thinking they mean the remainder of 2023. That's still a full point lower than where we are right now. Then they see 5% in 2024 and 4% in 2025.

Gosh, what an amazing scenario that would be if that came true. Four percent in 2025. That would be huge for affordability.

Goldman Sachs, NAR, and Morgan Stanley

Goldman Sachs says the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will be 6.4% by the end of 2023 and an average of 5.9% in 2024. Very positive. They're seeing rates come down substantially over the next year or so.

The National Association of Realtors is predicting 6.4% before the end of 2023 and 6% in 2024. Same trend.

Morgan Stanley is projecting the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will start 2024 at 6%. One thing that's a little confusing here is nobody has a uniform time frame. Some are talking about the beginning of 2024, some are talking about the end. But it's all the same trend, and I think that's really the key to focus on.

Moody's, Realtor.com, and Fannie Mae

Moody's is projecting mortgage rates will average 6.5% through most of 2023, then 6% by the end of 2024 and 5.5% in 2025. Again, that would be fantastic if we saw that.

Realtor.com is saying we'll start 2024 with 6.1%. That's more than a full percentage point drop from where we are now. That's substantial if it happens. Getting even to 6% is great. If we can get below 6%, that will be very great for buyers and affordability.

Last but not least is Fannie Mae. They're projecting 30-year fixed rates will average 6.6% in Q4 of 2023, then grind down to an average of 5.9% in Q4 of 2024. That's a full year out. They're saying they expect mortgage rates to average 6.1% in 2024.

The Consensus: Rates Are Dropping

Here's what you need to know. All nine firms agree that mortgage rates are coming down. If you look at the average of all the firms that talked about 2023, it's 6.34%. That's almost a full point lower than where we are right now.

For 2024, that average goes to 5.75%. Some are saying we'll see 4.9%. Some are saying just above 6%. All in all, it averages out to 5.75%.

Some of them gave a prediction on 2025. Those projections averaged 4.75%. That's a long ways out, so it's hard to project something a week from now, let alone a couple years from now. But the picture is rosy. They're painting this nice pretty picture of where rates are going.

They're all economists looking at a lot better data than I'm looking at, and they're coming to the conclusion that this is where rates are heading.

Why Buying Now Beats Waiting for Lower Rates

So what does that mean to you as a potential buyer or seller here in Southern Oregon?

If you've been watching my videos for the last few weeks or months, you know what I've been saying. I am really encouraging buyers to buy now, between now and the end of the year. If you can do it, if you're thinking about buying and you can buy between now and the end of the year, I think that is going to be a very wise move for you.

Because what's going to happen when these rates go down like everybody is projecting? If that happens and we end up in the spring of next year, there's gonna be a lot more buyers around competing for the same homes. And there'll probably be a limited number of homes because we're already seeing inventory come down, which it does every year around this time.

But if rates are down and inventory is down, that competition is just going to heat up and that's going to push prices back up.

The Refinance Strategy

That's why I'm encouraging people to buy now. If you buy now you're gonna pay a little bit more in your rate, but you can refinance next year or whatever if these rates come down like all these guys are projecting.

I think you're much better off buying now versus waiting and just refinancing. You'll get into a home at today's prices with less competition. Then when rates drop, you refinance and lower your payment. Meanwhile, the buyers who waited are competing with everyone else in a tighter market with higher prices.

That's my takeaway for a buyer. For a seller, it really doesn't make much of a difference either way with what we're talking about here. Not really any groundbreaking data that's going to say you should do something one way or the other.

If you had your pick and you wanted to get top dollar, I think you could probably do better maybe in the spring than trying to list it right now. But it's all very case by case. That's the key when you're selling. There's no real hard and fast rule for selling. It's just very much case by case in terms of what's the right move for you.

Retiring in Southern Oregon or Moving Here Soon?

If you're retiring in Southern Oregon or moving to Medford, Ashland, or Grants Pass in the next few months, this is the window. Rates are high right now, yes. But competition is manageable. Inventory is still decent. Sellers who needed to drop their price have mostly done it.

When rates fall, all that changes. The spring market will be packed. Prices will get bid back up. You'll be fighting for the same homes everyone else wants. So if you can buy now and refinance later, you're in a much better position than waiting for rates to drop and dealing with the rush.

Conclusion

The Southern Oregon real estate market is stable heading into late summer. Inventory is tightening in both Jackson and Josephine Counties. Price reductions have slowed. Pendings are steady. Closings rebounded last week. Nothing crazy, just a normal seasonal pattern.

But the mortgage rate forecasts are the big story. Nine leading firms all agree rates are coming down. The average prediction for the end of 2023 is 6.34%. For 2024, it's 5.75%. For 2025, some are predicting 4.75%.

If they're right, buying now and refinancing later is the move. You'll avoid the competition surge that comes when rates drop. You'll lock in today's prices. And you'll still get the benefit of lower rates down the road.

If you're thinking about buying or selling in Southern Oregon, I'd love to talk with you about your specific situation. Call or text me at 541-827-8767,  to set up a time for us to chat or we can meet face to face and figure out the right move for you.