Southern Oregon Real Estate Market: Why Home Prices Haven't Crashed
The housing market is, well, I guess it really just depends on where you're at.
If you've been watching national news, you've probably heard all the doom and gloom about rising interest rates, inflation, and predictions of a housing crash. But here in Southern Oregon, we're kind of in our own little bubble. The real estate market here tends to be pretty different than other parts of the country, and it's really different than what you see on the news about the national housing market.
So if you're thinking about buying or selling real estate in Southern Oregon, why would you get your information from a source that's focused on the national market when it's so different than what we're experiencing? This weekly update focuses exclusively on Jackson and Josephine Counties, giving you the data and insights you actually need to make informed decisions about buying a home in Southern Oregon or selling your current property.
As of June 28, 2023, our market is showing resilience that frankly surprises a lot of people. We're not experiencing the crash some predicted, and inventory levels remain manageable despite climbing interest rates. Let me walk you through what the numbers are telling us and, more importantly, what they mean for you.
Table of Contents
Southern Oregon Market Data: What Happened This Week
As of this morning, June 28th, we have 1,128 single-family residential homes on the market between Jackson and Josephine Counties . That's our total inventory right now for a population of about 300,000 people across both counties.
In the past week, here's what happened:
- 138 new listings hit the market
- 131 price changes were made
- 40 listings came back on the market
- 114 listings went pending
- 92 closings occurred
- 25 listings were either expired, withdrawn, or canceled
What really jumps out to me is that 138 new listings number. That's the biggest we've seen since middle of May, when we were at 142 new listings. We kind of slid into the 120s after that, and now we're back up to 138. Generally that happens when there's some sort of holiday weekend or something where people didn't want to list their home on a weekend where it might go unnoticed. The only thing I'm aware of for last weekend was Rooster Crow in Rogue River, and I don't think people plan their listings around Rooster Crow, so I don't know what the rationale is for that being elevated like it is. But whatever, it's not super elevated, just a little bit more new listings than I expected to see.
We also see a good number on pending activity. 114 pending is the highest we've seen since middle of May , and the 92 closings was nice too. All of those are maintaining the same levels as a percentage of inventory, which is one of the things I really like to look at.
Price changes, for example, as a percentage of inventory, have been about 10 to 12 percent, pretty stable forever. So as the inventory has been rising, you know, price changes have been rising too, but it's all been kind of nice and related. It's never gotten outside of that 10 to 12 percent range. Nothing really too crazy or groundbreaking jumps out at me in the data.
What the Housing Market IS Right Now
If I were to characterize the Southern Oregon real estate market right now, what it is in my mind is stable, and probably surprisingly so .
I think a lot of people see mortgage rates going up and up and up, and then they've stabilized at under 7 percent. People kind of expected that to lead to values declining significantly or a crash or whatever. And what we're seeing is just that that's not the case. The market has just been chugging right along.
I think people don't like interest rates being as high as they are, but they're dealing with it. A lot of people that I've talked to recently, as recently as yesterday, have even said they expect to see rates kind of stabilize in the 5s at some point. Probably not this year, as we're halfway through the year right now, but probably next year getting back into the 5 range and seeing those kind of stabilize.
We're seeing the market be very stable despite the high rates and despite the headlines and everything about the Fed and the inflation and the economy and all this kind of negativity. The market's just persevered through all of that, which is great. It shows that it's very resilient and very healthy.
To me, those are all very positive things. I think this is one of the best outcomes that we could have expected or could have had, given the situation with the economy and inflation and all these sorts of things. It's really one of the best outcomes we could have had is to see the housing market just chugged right along as it has and not have a big decline or anything.
What the Housing Market ISN'T Right Now
If it is stable, then what isn't it?
What it isn't is crashing. No doubt about it, the housing market is not crashing, not in any measurable sense.
There's a little bit of a decline in the volume, and volume meaning just the number of closed transactions. If we look at the last 6 weeks this year, we averaged about 80 closes a week . If I go to last year, same 6-week period, we averaged 105 closed transactions per week . So we went from 105 to 80.
That's not a gigantic change. I mean, it's noticeable, but it's not like a crash. Home values aren't falling as a result of that, or at least not significantly. There's some segments of the market that are more desirable than others, more active than others, but it's not a wholesale market crash like we saw back in '08 and those times.
This is not 2008. We're not seeing the kind of price drops or foreclosure waves that defined that era. The fundamentals here are completely different.
Why Southern Oregon's Market Stays Stable
So why is that? How come it's not crashing? How come these high interest rates haven't really had a major effect?
What I always come back to on that is simply supply and demand . Let's not overthink this.
If we have 1,100 homes on the market right now, well, let's just simplify and say 1,000 just for simple math. Let's say there's 1,000 homes on the market, which we were at just a month ago. 1,000 homes on the market in Jackson and Josephine Counties for 300,000 people, plus all the people that are moving into this area, that's not a lot of homes. 1,000 homes for 300,000 people, that's not a lot.
Simply put, the demand just naturally from the people who take a job somewhere else in the country and they need to sell their home, or somebody that outgrew their first home and they need to buy a bigger home, there's always going to be that natural turn in the market that is caused by life events. Whether it's retiring or getting married or divorced or a death in the family, there's all sorts of things that lead people to having the need to buy or sell real estate. When you have a population of 300,000 people, that natural turn is gonna happen.
With that, we're still only at 3 months worth of inventory. Just with that natural supply and demand. And when you add in people coming in from other parts of the country, which we experience obviously with people coming up from California, which is whatever, some people love it, some people hate it, but it is what it is, it's a good thing for our market, frankly, in my opinion, because it just adds the demand. That's what's got us into the position where we have a very healthy real estate market.
You look at other parts of the country where they've had these big, huge national builders come in and pump out 1,000 homes in a new subdivision, and then all of a sudden things start to turn and they're slashing their prices to try to sell their inventory. Then that kind of leads their market down because those home prices are going down, and then everybody else has to kind of chase them down, and it just is a bad thing.
We don't have that here, so we're in a uniquely good little bubble for housing. We don't have large national builders pumping out subdivisions and then cutting prices when the market shifts. Our inventory comes from individual sellers responding to real life events, and that creates a much more stable, predictable market.
The inbound migration from California adds consistent demand on top of the natural local demand. That combination, paired with limited inventory, keeps us at a healthy 3 months of supply even when interest rates climb.
Conclusion
The Southern Oregon housing market continues to prove it's different from national trends. We're stable, resilient, and healthy despite high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Our inventory sits at just over 1,100 homes for 300,000 people, we're averaging 80 closings per week, and price changes remain consistent at 10 to 12 percent of inventory.
This isn't a market that's crashing. It's a market that's adjusting and persevering. If you're thinking about buying or selling real estate in Southern Oregon, you're working in one of the most stable markets in the country right now.
If you'd like to talk through what this data means for your specific situation, whether you're relocating to Southern Oregon, retiring in Southern Oregon, or already living here and considering a move, I'm happy to walk you through it. Let's set up a time to talk. You can call or text me at 541-954-7758, or send an email. I'm here to help you make informed decisions with real local data, not national headlines.at the link in the description. I'm he
FAQ
How much inventory does Southern Oregon currently have?
As of June 28, 2023, we have 1,128 single-family residential homes on the market across Jackson and Josephine Counties. That represents about 3 months of inventory for our population of 300,000 people, which is a healthy, balanced market level.
Are home prices dropping in Southern Oregon?
No, home values are not declining significantly in Southern Oregon despite higher interest rates. Price changes remain stable at 10 to 12 percent of inventory, which is consistent with what we've seen for a long time. Some segments of the market are more active than others, but we're not seeing a wholesale price decline.
How does Southern Oregon's market compare to the national housing market?
Southern Oregon's market is very different from national trends. We don't have large national builders creating oversupply and slashing prices like some other markets. Our inventory comes from individual sellers responding to life events, and we have consistent inbound migration adding demand. This creates a much more stable market than what you see in national headlines.
How many homes are selling each week in Southern Oregon?
We're currently averaging about 80 closed transactions per week over the last 6 weeks. That's down from 105 per week during the same period last year, but it's not a dramatic decline. The market is still active and healthy, just slightly slower than the peak activity we saw in 2022.
When will interest rates come back down?
Rates have stabilized under 7 percent right now. Many people I've talked to expect rates to stabilize in the 5 percent range at some point, probably not this year but likely next year. Even with current rates, the Southern Oregon market remains active because of strong underlying supply and demand fundamentals.
Why hasn't Southern Oregon's market crashed like 2008?
The fundamentals are completely different. We don't have the oversupply, risky lending, or foreclosure wave that defined 2008. We have limited inventory, natural demand from life events, consistent inbound migration, and no large builders dumping inventory. Simply put, we have more buyers than homes available, which keeps the market stable even when rates rise.
Buying Southern Oregon
At Buying Southern Oregon, we are a dynamic team dedicated to helping you achieve your real estate goals. Combining Brian Simmons’ deep market expertise and Josh Berman’s strong negotiation skills, we provide personalized service and local knowledge to ensure a seamless and rewarding experience. Whether you’re buying, selling, or relocating, we’re here to guide you every step of the way and make your Southern Oregon real estate journey a success.
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